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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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